成果发布

1. “Urban public pension, replacement rates and population growth rate in China”: This paper uses an overlapping generations model to investigate the urban public pension in China. It examines the effects of the replacement rates and population growth rate on the capital-labor ratio, pension benefits, consumption and utility, and finds the optimal replacement rate. It is shown that raising the individual account benefit replacement rate only increases the individual account benefits. Raising the social pool benefit replacement rate induces the increase in the social pool benefits and retirement-period consumption, while the decrease in the capital-labor ratio, individual account benefits, working-period consumption and utility. The fall in the population growth rate leads to the increase in the capital-labor ratio, social pool benefits, individual account benefits, working-period consumption and utility, while the decrease in the retirement-period consumption. The optimal social pool benefit replacement rate depends on the individual discount factor, social discount factor, capital share of income and population growth rate, and it decreases in the case of fallen population growth rate. It will do more good than harm to raise the individual account benefit replacementrate, reduce the social pool benefit replacement rate and strictly implement China’s population policy. See Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 45 (2) for details.
2. 《不定寿命条件下城镇公共养老金最优替代率的理论与实证研究》：考虑不定寿命、用OLG模型在一般均衡框架内分析中国城镇公共养老金。通过市场经济的稳定状态满足社会福利最大的条件，求解最优的社会统筹养老金替代率。该最优替代率取决于人口增长率、退休期生存概率、资本的收入份额、个人折现率和社会折现率。模拟显示，最优的社会统筹养老金替代率随平均寿命延长而升高，随人口增长率下降而降低。在平均寿命延长且人口增长率下降的情况下，最优的社会统筹养老金替代率应降低。详见《管理评论》2011年第2期。
3. 《城镇社会养老保险、人口出生率与内生增长》：在具有内生增长的交叠世代模型框架内，本文考察中国的部分积累制养老保险对人口出生率、经济增长和家庭养老保障的影响。假设个人为拥有孩子和老年期得到孩子的物质支持而感到满足，子女感谢父母养育之恩的默契总起作用。证明了提高企业缴费率会导致人口出生率和代际转移率下降、经济增长率上升，而个人缴费对这三者没有影响。进而求解了能合理控制人口规模、促进经济适度增长并鼓励适当家庭养老保障的理想的企业缴费率区间。详见《统计研究》2009年第5期或者中国人民大学书报资料中心《社会保障制度》2009年第9期。

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